Nothing compares 2 U: The reason why Flutter opted for change at the top of FanDuel appeared obvious overnight after rival DraftKings delivered what CEO Jason Robins described as a “fantastic” set of quarterly numbers.

• Q1 revenue came in up 17% YoY to $1.65bn while adj. EBITDA soared 64% to $168m.
• The company said that if not for the Arkansas launch and the investment in the prediction markets offering, it would have exceeded $200m.
• In his shareholder letter, Robins said the company was “off to a fantastic start to the year.”

Pale comparison: In comparison, earlier in the week Flutter Entertainment said that while FanDuel’s revenue rose 6% to $1.76bn, adj. EBITDA fell by 26% to $119m, with the company blaming the reverse on the after-effects from the generosity missteps in the prior quarter.

• Implicitly, the lackluster numbers lay behind Amy Howe’s departure as FanDuel CEO, announced on Wednesday.

The DraftKings edge: FanDuel’s market share lead was “always transient,” said Regulus, driven by Flutter’s “massive advantage” in SGPs and iCasino experience. “Both drivers can be copied in theory and have been effectively copied in practice by Draftkings.”

• In addition, the team said, Draftkings has “delivered more targeted bonuses, superior mass-market UX and consistently more effective VIP management.”
• Stifel was more sanguine, pointing out that while DraftKings is “pacing ahead,” the limited visibility on what is happening under the hood makes it “difficult to distinguish whether this is outcomes-driven or more structural.”

The tale of the tape: Sportsbook was the prime driver for DraftKings’ relative outperformance, with revenue increasing 24% YoY to $1.1bn. iCasino was not so impressive – while revenues were up 9% to $461m, it marked a growth rate deceleration from recent trends.

• Deutsche Bank said adj. EBITDA was in line with consensus expectations but, they believe, ahead of recent investor expectations.
• But they noted that handle growth of ~1.5% was a deceleration compared with Q4’s 12.7% YoY improvement.
• The team also pointed out that 1.5% marks a deceleration compared to the 4% spoken about by DraftKings on their Q4 call.

The road to perdition: Truist said DraftKings is “charging hard down the prediction path,” and the company said that in April the predictions product enjoyed “consumer volumes” of over $1bn and that annualized total volume traded exceeded $2.3bn.

• DraftKings has already launched its own market-making operation and this is “already generating a positive return.”
• It noted it was also prepping for the launch of a proprietary exchange and would begin offering combos.
• As of next quarter, the company said it would be including both sportsbook and sports predictions in its ‘sports revenue’ numbers.
• “Sports Predictions and sportsbook serve the same customers in the same live moments and leverage a shared underlying infrastructure,” Robins said in the shareholder letter.

Cakeism: Regulus said DraftKings was “putting on a braver face” versus its major OSB rivals regarding prediction markets, suggesting that whatever the legal landscape it will “have its cake and eat it” by having a viable product without heavy investment in a market that “might not exist in three years time.”

• Citizens said the move into market making was an “underappreciated” opportunity and “could serve as an upside catalyst.”
• Despite the investment in the sports predictions offering, DraftKings maintained its 2026 revenue and adj. EBITDA guidance.

Diary date: The company will host its call with the analysts BMO in New York later today.