The devil came and took me: The UK betting shop’s obituary has been written many times but Greg Knight, CEO of JenningsBet, is not yet ready to sign it off, despite the latest threat coming from the Social Market Foundation’s (SMF’s) 40% machine games duty (MGD) proposal.

From bar to street to bookie: Speaking to Earnings+More shortly before the SMF published its proposal to double MGD on Category B machines, Knight presented a picture of a retail bookmaking sector that is contracting but far from disappearing.

• The future, in his view, lies in fewer, better-invested shops taking a larger share of a market that has found a more sustainable level.
• “I don’t think we’re ever going to grow the existing market,” Knight said, before prophesying a reduction in overall shop numbers.
• “That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s doomed,” he added. “It means we’re right-sizing from its peak.”

It’s his lucky day, that’s a given: JenningsBet opened its 200th shop this year, having doubled its estate from around 100 branches, in an expansion that has largely come through acquiring smaller independents and providing straightforward economies of scale.

• It can then lift the performance of acquired shops through refurbishment, technology and improved presentation.
• Knight described the result as closer to a modern sports bar than the stereotypical betting shop: light, bright and comfortable, with large screens and self-service technology.
• The suggestion is that some of the larger betting-shop estates are caught in a downward spiral where a lack of capital expenditure leaves shops looking tired, which weakens customer traffic and makes it still harder to justify further investment.

I came in here for that special offer: JenningsBet’s revenues are growing year on year, but the pattern of betting has changed. Self-service betting terminals are now the main growth product, while machine gaming revenue is holding steady.

• The customer base is also broader than the industry’s image might suggest. “It’s not as if it’s literally a load of pensioners in cloth caps sitting in these shops anymore,” Knight said. “That’s probably the biggest surprise to people. It’s a varied age group.”
• The changing high street could even work in retail betting’s favor. As traditional shopping declines, town centers are becoming more focused on leisure, hospitality and social experiences.
• Betting shops can fit into that mix, particularly when they provide the sense of shared participation that online cannot fully replicate.

Do you want to work in C&A, ’cause that’s what they expect? Yet Knight was clear that the sector’s greatest risks sit largely outside its control: cost inflation, increases in the minimum wage and National Insurance changes can tip marginal shops into losses.

• Regulation remains an ever-present concern, while horseracing’s media-rights demands are placing further strain on shop economics.
• Knight said his Arena Racing Company bill rose 30% during the 2025 renewal round.
• “Media rights costs have risen so sharply over the last few years that that’s probably a bigger threat than anything [Chancellor] Rachel Reeves throws at us,” he said.

You’re in a bad way: That assessment came before the SMF produced a very specific fiscal threat. Machines account for approximately half of betting-shop revenue, making the proposal potentially existential for much of the estate.

• Regulus Partners calculates that doubling the MGD rate would make the betting shop and adult gaming center sectors structurally loss-making.
• Its modeling suggests approximately 4,000 of Britain’s 5,500 betting shops could close, costing around 25,000 jobs and £100m in media-rights and levy income for British horseracing.

And I can help you through: Responding after the report’s publication, Knight put the argument in more tangible terms. JenningsBet’s recently opened Watford shop required an investment of approximately £200k-£250k.

• “That money went to three carpenters, two plumbers, two electricians, two floor layers, two painters and decorators, a roofing company and a marketing company,” he wrote on LinkedIn.
• “We also created five new local jobs directly on top of all of that. These are real people with real businesses and livelihoods.”

Just dial my number or call my name: Tax policy that “doesn’t account for the kind of investment we make up and down the country doesn’t just hit businesses like JenningsBet,” Knight added. “It hits every contractor, tradesperson and local job that comes with us opening on the high street.”

• “You may not like the gambling industry, and that’s a fair position to hold. But you can’t argue with what we put back into the economy and the high street.”
• The future depends on the government distinguishing between a mature sector gradually restructuring itself and one capable of absorbing another major tax increase without consequence.
• “We’ve been down this road before, and we proved the SMF were talking rubbish,” Knight wrote. “Let’s hope we don’t have to do it again with a new Chancellor.”

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