Not buying it

3 mins read

One man on a lonely platform: Sportradar came armed yesterday with a new quarter-of-a-billion share buyback, a personal $10m commitment from CEO Carsten Koerl and plenty of answers to the analysts’ questions when it presented its Q1 earnings, but it left investors unmoved.

  • The shares fell a further 11% yesterday, leaving them down nearly 50% YTD.
  • One case sitting by his side: Ironically, the company pulled forward its earnings release by a week in order, according to CFO Craig Felenstein, “better capitalize on the opportunity provided by the company’s current share price.”

Two eyes staring cold and silent: Yesterday’s earnings followed last week’s short-selling attacks from Muddy Waters and Callisto Research, which made various claims about Sportradar’s exposure to gray- and black-market revenue.

  • On the call, Koerl and Felenstein attempted to rebut the substance of the allegations and also downplay the alleged exposure to gray markets.
  • Felenstein walked the analysts through the math, and after stripping out various elements of the revenues, came to the figure of a low- to mid-single-digit percentage.

Shows fear as he turns to hide: That is the direct counter to Muddy Waters’ headline claim that between 20% and 40% of Sportradar’s revenue flows from clients operating illegally.

  • But what the company didn’t do yesterday was deny any of the gray market names that were put forward by the reports.
  • These included 1xbet, Stake, 188Bet, Yabo, 8xbet and SBOBet.

On the slide: Sportradar’s share price YTD

Hands up: Koerl was on more certain ground countering the ICE sting allegation central to the Muddy Waters report. He did not deny the encounter, saying it was a purposeful sting campaign on a relatively young sales employee at the event.

  • “No excuse, this should not happen,” he added..
  • But he argued that such a deal would not successfully negotiate Sportradar’s full KYC chain and that such conversations were anyway “far off from signing a contract.”

Slings and arrows: Koerl went on to suggest that Sportradar was “probably the most attacked company when it comes to sports-data piracy,” arguing that its products are being redistributed with or without its knowledge.

  • He drew an analogy with Bloomberg terminals, pointing out that when a bank misuses Bloomberg data, regulators go after the bank, not the terminal provider.
  • “It is not a betting functionality,” he protested. “It is an information tool.”

We’re right behind you: Koerl also suggested he and Sportradar had received “overwhelming” support from partners and clients, from the wider industry and from “some commissioners.”

  • “And from a regulator perspective, we are in contact with some regulators on a very frequent basis,” he added.
  • “Some of them contacted our teams, explaining to them the situation, and that’s an ongoing process.”

A swing and a miss: Somewhat overshadowed by the pushback on the short-selling reports, Q1 revenue of €347m was up 11% YoY with adj. EBITDA up 12% to €66m.

  • This did not help with the investor response as they represented a consensus miss.
  • But the FY26 guidance was reaffirmed, with revenue forecast €1.57bn at midpoint and €395m of EBITDA.

Power play: On developments around prediction markets, Koerl said they were a “significant opportunity” and that the company was “uniquely positioned to lead” given its content, scale and unmatched product portfolio.

  • Sportradar was set to “power key players in the prediction market ecosystem,” he added.

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