Cold desert: A federal judge in Arizona has temporarily blocked the state from pursuing criminal charges against Kalshi, after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) intervened and asked the court to preserve the existing federal framework.

• The order, issued by US District Judge Michael Liburdi, halts Arizona’s case while the courts consider the core jurisdiction question of whether Kalshi’s event contracts are federally regulated swaps or state-regulated gambling products.
• That gives Kalshi a near-term reprieve in one of the most aggressive state actions yet against a prediction market operator.
• It also marks a more forceful move by the CFTC itself, rather than another round of Kalshi arguing alone that federal law preempts state enforcement.
• “The CFTC appreciates the court’s careful consideration of these important legal questions and the court’s decision to preserve the status quo,” said CFTC chair Michael Selig.

State troopers: Arizona is not alone in taking a local stand against Kalshi et al, but Selig said attempts to use state criminal law against federally supervised firms risked undermining federal oversight and setting a “dangerous precedent.”

• The CFTC contends that prediction markets fall under the Commodity Exchange Act and sit within its exclusive jurisdiction.
• State prosecutors cannot recast federally regulated event contracts as illegal gambling and proceed under local criminal statutes, the agency argued.

Kris cross: Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed criminal proceedings against Kalshi on March 17, alleging the company was running an unlawful gambling enterprise by allowing users to trade on political elections.

• “Kalshi may brand itself as a ‘prediction market,’ but what it’s actually doing is running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections, both of which violate Arizona law,” Mayes said.
• “No company gets to decide for itself which laws to follow.”

Kalshi pushed back, saying it does not operate like a sportsbook or casino and that its products sit within a separate federal regime. A Kalshi motion for immediate relief had previously been rejected by Judge Liburdi.

• Arizona contests the federal agency’s reading of the law and said states retain their traditional authority over sports betting and similar gambling activity.
• The CFTC is also seeking declaratory relief and injunctions against similar state actions in Connecticut and Illinois.

Long arm of the law: The agency’s growing determination to stop states from regulating CFTC-supervised exchanges through litigation and enforcement has been called into question by legal experts.

• “Risky business for the CFTC to claim the right to enforce federal law vs. states in federal court when it won’t even enforce its own regulations expressly banning ‘gaming’ contracts and then waited nearly one year after Arizona’s cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi before filing suit,” said gaming attorney Daniel Wallach.

This is a story about control: At the same time, Minnesota senators have moved closer to a vote on what is described as one of the country’s first prediction market restriction bills.

• The proposal would reinforce the state’s existing online gambling bans by prohibiting prediction markets deemed not to be a “legitimate” investment tool from taking event contracts on sports, politics, disasters and other non-investment outcomes.
• The bill, SF 4511, which also restricts advertising, would take effect on August 1.
• The Senate Rules and Administration Committee advanced the bill on a voice vote on Friday, with a full Senate vote possible later this month.
• The measure would still need House approval; a companion bill, HF 4437, has not yet reached the floor.

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